Estimation Consensus Method

Estimate the effort for this work using multiple approaches.

Task description:
{{task_description}}

Context: {{context}}
Team: {{team}}

## ESTIMATE 1: Bottom-Up
- Break into subtasks
- Estimate each subtask
- Sum with buffer
- Result: [estimate]

## ESTIMATE 2: Analogous
- Find similar past work
- Adjust for differences
- Result: [estimate]

## ESTIMATE 3: Expert Judgment
- What would a senior engineer estimate?
- What risks would they factor in?
- Result: [estimate]

## CONSENSUS
- Range of estimates: [min to max]
- Most likely estimate: [value]
- Confidence level: [percentage]
- Key uncertainties affecting the estimate
- Recommended commitment: [conservative estimate]