Hypothesis Testing Framework

J

Jordan Reyes

@jordan-reyes

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Create rigorous hypothesis testing plans with clear decision criteria

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Structure a hypothesis testing plan for {{hypothesis}}.

Context: {{context}}
Stakeholder concerns: {{concerns}}

Step 1: Formalize the Hypothesis
- State it clearly: "We believe that [action] will result in [outcome] for [users] because [reasoning]"
- Identify the riskiest assumption

Step 2: Define Success Criteria
- What evidence would prove the hypothesis?
- What evidence would disprove it?
- What is the minimum bar for proceeding?

Step 3: Design the Test
- Fastest way to get signal
- Minimum viable test scope
- Data collection approach

Step 4: Identify Risks
- What could give us false confidence?
- What biases should we watch for?
- How do we ensure valid results?

Step 5: Plan the Decision
- If hypothesis is validated, then...
- If hypothesis is invalidated, then...
- If results are inconclusive, then...

Step 6: Timeline and Resources
- Estimated time to results
- Resources needed
- Key milestones

Details

Category

Analysis

Use Cases

Assumption validationExperiment designRisk reduction

Works Best With

gpt-4claude-3
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