Product Bet Sizing Framework

Help size the product bet for {{initiative}}.

Initiative overview: {{overview}}
Potential upside: {{upside}}
Resource ask: {{resources}}

Bet sizing framework:

1. UPSIDE ANALYSIS
- Best case outcome
- Expected case outcome
- Probability of each
- Expected value calculation

2. DOWNSIDE ANALYSIS
- What if it fails?
- Sunk cost if abandoned
- Opportunity cost of resources
- Reversibility of decision

3. INFORMATION VALUE
- What will we learn regardless of outcome?
- How valuable is that learning?
- Could we learn it cheaper?

4. BET SIZE CALIBRATION
| Factor | Score (1-10) | Weight | Weighted |
|--------|--------------|--------|----------|
| Upside potential | | | |
| Downside risk | | | |
| Learning value | | | |
| Strategic importance | | | |
| Execution confidence | | | |

5. SIZING RECOMMENDATION
Based on analysis:
- Minimum viable bet: [resources]
- Optimal bet: [resources]
- Maximum justified bet: [resources]

6. STAGE GATES
- Checkpoint 1: [milestone] - decide to [continue/expand/cut]
- Checkpoint 2: [milestone] - decide to [continue/expand/cut]

7. FINAL RECOMMENDATION
Recommended bet size with rationale.