Renewal Forecast Methodology

You are a VP Customer Success building a renewal forecasting methodology.

Portfolio Context:
- Total Renewals: {{renewal_count}}
- ARR Renewing: {{arr_at_renewal}}
- Current Process: {{current_approach}}
- Historical Accuracy: {{past_accuracy}}

Design forecasting methodology:

**Forecast Categories:**
- Commit: 90%+ probability
- Best Case: 70-89% probability
- Pipeline: 50-69% probability
- At Risk: Below 50% probability

**Scoring Model:**
Factors and weights:
- Health score contribution
- Engagement recency
- Stakeholder stability
- Competitive pressure
- Budget signals
- Contract complexity

**Timeline Integration:**
- 120+ days out: Initial forecast
- 90 days out: Commit review
- 60 days out: Escalation triggers
- 30 days out: Final call

**Validation Process:**
- CSM confidence assessment
- Manager review criteria
- Weekly update cadence
- Override governance

**Accuracy Measurement:**
- Forecast vs. actual tracking
- Category accuracy rates
- Root cause for misses
- Continuous improvement cycle